What Went Wrong?
I’ve heard a lot of people giving their opinions on what went wrong with the Yankees this year. The answer I’ve heard most often is that Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy did not pan out as expected. The injury to Wang has also been heavily cited. Looking into the numbers, however shows that the Yankees have given up 50 less runs this year than they gave up last year. That means that even with all the injuries, the pitching staff did better this year than it did last year. The offense scored 189 less runs this year than they did last year.
The biggest dropoff was at the catcher position. Last year Jorge had 85 RBIs as a catcher, Molina had 9 with the Yankees, and Nieves added 8 for a total of 102 from the catcher position. This year Jorge had 15, Molina had 15, Moeller had 9 and Pudge had 3 for a total of 42. That’s a dropoff of 60 RBIs at one position.
Coming in a close second is the dropoff at 3rd base. Last year A-Rod, Cairo, and Betemit combined for 163 RBIs when playing 3rd while this year Yankee third basemen have combined for 105 RBIs for a dropoff of 58 RBIs at 3rd. While I think it’s a little unrealistic to expect anyone to duplicate what A-Rod did last year, this makes me seriously rethink what I wrote in an earlier blog about him.
Robinson Cano played almost every game at 2nd and ended up with 25 less RBIs this year than he had in 2007. The dropoff at centerfield with Melky, Damon, and Gardner (this year)totaled 16 less RBIs.
So looking at the data, the biggest problems with the Yankees this year were the injury to Posada, the lack of timely hitting from A-Rod, and the dropoff in production from Cano. The decrease in RBIs at catcher, 3rd, 2nd, and center account for 159 of the 189 runs As Brian Cashman looks to improve the team for next year, our biggest hopes are a healthy and productive Jorge, another MVP season from A-Rod, and Cano remembering how to hit. Of course, pitching also needs to be addressed given the uncertainty around Pettite and Moose. Even if Moose does come back, it’s doubtful that he’ll win another 20 games.
My Greatest Baseball Experience
With the close of Yankee Stadium, it’s time to reflect:
September 11, 2001 hit the United States hard, but it was harder in the NY area. I can remember being consumed by depression.
Baseball began the healing process when the Yankees started playing again, but there was a long way to go. There’s a high spot on Route 17 in NJ where the New York City skyline is clearly visible. As I drove home every day that month, the spot where those two beautiful towers once stood was replaced by smoke. The smoke that reminded me every day of the senseless deaths. The missing towers represented the void felt by all those who lost family and friends that morning.
I was lucky enough to attend the pennant clinching game that year against the Mariners. I often hear fans say that they want to see a good game, but I enjoy watching the Yankees blow people out. That game was great to watch, but my celebrating was still tempered by what had happened a month earlier. As I watched the team and the other fans celebrate another pennant, I didn’t feel like I was part of the celebration. I was purely a spectator.
On October 31st I was given an opportunity to go to the World Series. My daughter means the world to me, and there is normally nothing that would keep me from taking her trick-or-treating, but this was a once-in-a-lifetime opportuntity and I felt like I needed to be at Yankee Stadium that night. So I left work early, took my daughter out for a short while, and headed towards The Stadium.
The Yankees were completely stifled for the entire game. They couldn’t seem to get a hit. Down 2-0 with two outs in the bottom of the 9th there was a feeling of helpless desperation that New Yorkers (and those from nothern NJ) had come to know all too well during that time.
With one swing of the bat, Tino Martinez changed all that. As the ball was in the air, time stood still. There was a defeaning silence as the entire stadium held its collective breath. As the ball landed, The Stadium exploded. I was in the upper deck, and it was actually shaking. The Stadium literally rocked. Tino Martinez rose out of the ashes of ground zero like a phoenix and pulled an entire city with him. I had never heard it so loud…until Derek Jeter came up around midnight.
The scoreboard welcomed the fans to November baseball for the first time ever. I expected Derek would get a hit to start a rally, but I never exected what came next. As the ball landed over the fence there was a celebration that I could finally feel like I was a part of. I celebrated that moment with my best friend who was next to me as the Yankees celebrated on the field. I looked around The Stadium and saw complete strangers hugging each other. Somebody on the other side of The Stadium held up a sign that said: “Mr November.” Yankee fans never disappoint.
The celebration continued all the way out of The Stadium and in the car ride home. Though the pain of that horrible morning in September will never be forgotten, that one game helped me move on. Tino, Derek, thank you.
My First Time in the Cathedral
On Saturday, July 17th 1982 I went to my cousins’ house. When we were about to leave, the phone rang and my cousins – who were older than me – were offered 4 tickets to that evening’s Yankee game. They asked me if I wanted to go with them. I had never been to Yankee Stadium before, even though I had been a Yankee fan for years. I looked at my father, and he told me that I could go. I can’t remember many things in my childhood that I was ever more excited about.
I can remember seeing The Stadium as we drove up to it. The first sight of it took my breath away. It still does.
As we walked through the tunnel, I took my first look at the field. It was perfect. There is no other word to describe it. Every blade of grass was just perfect. Then I saw the frieze across the outfield. It was majestic, looking as though The Stadium was wearing a crown, being dubbed the king of all stadiums.
We made our way to our seats, and I was thrilled to find out where we were sitting – down the right field line, where the wall starts to angle upward, in the first row! We watched the Yankees warm up and I looked over at right field thinking, “Babe Ruth played there!” Then I looked at 1st base and think about how Lou Gehrig played there. Then I looked at center field and thought: ”MICKEY MANTLE AND JOE DIMAGGIO PLAYED THERE!” I looked across at the retired numbers and Monument Park. It was all so beautiful.
Ken Griffey, Sr. was warming up right in font of us when a stray ball landed near him. We all screamed for him to throw the ball into the stands to us. He just picked it up, looked at us dismissively, and rolled it into the dugout. What a jerk.
Shane Rawley threw his first pitch to Davey Lopes and my first live baseball game was underway. I looked over at third base where Graig Nettles, my favorite player, was stationed. I was hoping that I would get to see him make one of his great diving stops. I continued looking around at the different positions and thinking about the great players who played there: Whitey Ford, Yogi Berra, Bill Dickey, Roger Maris. I must have looked back at right field and thought about Babe Ruth a dozen times.
In the bottom of the first someone hit a foul ball that the ball boy fielded right in front of me. He tossed the ball right to me since I was the only kid in the area. As I reached out for it what seemed like a million adult arms reached out in front of me. Someone tipped the ball up in the air. There was a scuffle, and my cousin ended up with the ball. That was the closest I would ever get to getting a foul ball in that stadium. At least I got to hold it for a minute.
Jerry Mumphrey provided some excitement in the 3rd inning when he hit a two-run homer, driving in Griffey, who I’m still mad at (it’s been 26 years, you would think I could let it go by now). Not much else happened until the 8th inning.
In the 8th as I saw Bobby Murcer walking up to the plate, I had a premonition. I watched Murcer step into the left-handed batters box, and I tapped my cousin on the shoulder. When he turned to look at me, I pointed out to right field and said, “Bobby’s going to hit the ball right there.” Bobby deposited the ball two rows above the very seat that I pointed to, driving in Mumphrey. It was his 150th HR as a Yankee. The Yankees won 4-1.
This year I was lucky enough to attend the All-Star Game. It was the first game played at Yankee Stadium after Bobby Murcer passed away. In between innings they put a picture of Bobby on the scoreboard to honor his memory. I haven’t been back for a game since, nor do I want to. I think it’s really cool that my last game at Yankee Stadium will be forever tied to my first.
I went back a week and a half ago to say goodbye. I took the tour of The Stadium. I got to walk on the field (just the dirt, we weren’t allowed to touch the grass), I sat in the dugout, and I went into the locker room (to see Thurman Munson’s locker). They may be knocking it down, but I’ll always have my memories of the perfection of the grass, the honor of Monument Park, the majestic nature of the frieze…and Bobby Murcer.
Is A-Rod Treated Unfairly?
He’s a 3-time MVP. Since his first full season, he’s only had one year in which he finished lower than 15th in the MVP voting. He has more homeruns than Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle or Ted Williams and he’s only 33. He has a higher career slugging percentage than Stan Musial, Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, and Hank Aaron. He’s won a batting title and finished in the top 10 three times. He’s a .306 career hitter. He’s finished in the top ten in OBP eight times and has a career OBP of .389. He’s won 2 Gold Gloves..at shortstop. He’s scored 100 runs in every full season he’s played and driven in 100 in every full season except one. He’s a member of the 40-40 club. His 162-game averages are: 191 Hits, 128 Runs, 44 HRs, 127 RBIs, and 23 SBs. Statistically, Alex Rodriguez isn’t just one of the best players in baseball today, he’s one of the greatest players in baseball history. So why haven’t Yankee fans embraced him?
To be sure, A-Rod has his share of fans, especially amongst younger fans. His jerseys sell very well and many children can be seen wearing number 13 on their backs during Yankee games. However, while Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux told us that “chicks dig the long ball’ a trip to Yankee Stadium will quickly show that women prefer Jeter. Listening to talk radio in the NY area shows that the guys also prefer Jeter.
Some fans will point to A-Rod’s personal life and recent accusations of infidelity that have led to his wife filing for divorce, but Yankee fans have a long history of welcoming alcoholics, drug addicts, and womanizers. Others will accuse him of being a selfish player – more concerned with his own persnal stats than winning – forgetting that he switched positions in order to come to the Yankees and have a perennial chance at winning the World Series. Of course, the love that Yankee fans have shown to Rickey Henderson and Reggie Jackson seem to contradict his “selfishness” as the reason he hasn’t been the fan favorite you would expect.
The last name mentioned above gets to the heart of the matter. When the spotlight was on him, it seemed that no one came through more than Reggie Jackson. Mr. October’s career batting average was .262, but he batted nearly 100 points higher at .357 in 5 World Series. A-Rod has played in 5 post-season series with the Yankees. The Yankees have won only one of those series. He batted .421 in that series against the Twins. Since then his batting average has been dismal, especially when compared to his career average. He batted .258 against the Red Sox, .133 against the Angels in ’05, .071 against the Tigers in ’06, and .267 against the Indians last year.
So it seems clear that A-Rod has been futile in the playoffs, but has that really been the case? A closer look shows that his with the exception of ’06 when he didn’t walk and posted an OBP of .071 (even Babe Ruth went into slumps occasionally), his OBP for each of the series respectively has been .476, .378, .381, and .353.
What do the numbers tell us? Some other stats may help shed some light on the situation. With 2 outs and RISP this year he’s batting .250, but his OBP is .451. In late and close situations he’s batting .262, but his OBP is .364. He’s batting .283 in tie games, .285 in games where the difference in score is < 1 run and .279 when the difference is < 2 runs. His OBP is consistently in the .380s and .390s for all situations where the score is within 4 runs, but in games where the difference is > 4 runs he’s batting .393.
So all this proves that A-Rod can’t hit in pressure situations, right? Not really. Looking at A-Rod’s numbers this year he’s batting .361 in wins and .243 in losses. I believe that opposing teams have figured out that the way to beat the Yankees is not to allow A-Rod to beat you. Therefore they’ve been extremely careful in pitching to him in these close situations. There’s not much glory in getting a walk in key situations, but he’s been willing to take them.
I have to admit that I began writing this with the thoughts of proving that A-Rod has not been good in these clutch situations, but after doing the research I’ve changed my mind. By the way, while I was writing this I saw A-Rod score the first run of the game on an aggresive base-running play (some would call it a base-running mistake, but it worked out) and then hit a 3-run HR when the Yankees were leading 1-0.
Jeter vs. Reyes
I read an article today that suggests that Jose Reyes has become the best shortstop in NY. That didn’t sound quite right to me, so I decided to look at some stats.
Obviously, Jeter has had the better career, so there is no point in even looking at overall career numbers. Let’s just look at this season – which is Reyes’ best and arguably Jeter’s worst.
On the surface Reyes appears to be having the better season with avg/OBP/SLG of .305/.365/.489 vs. Jeter at .295/.354/.396, but Jeter is known as someone who comes through when his team needs a hit. How do their numbers compare in critical situations for their teams? With runners in scoring position Jeter is batting .315 while Reyes is batting .262. In late and close (7th inning or later in either a tied or 1-run game) situations Jeter’s numbers are .324/.395/.412 while Reyes’ numbers are .278/.348/.367. How about against their biggest rivals? Reyes has pretty good numbers against the Phillies with .299/.373/.507, but Jeter boasts numbers of .360/.396/.400 against the Red Sox.
Baseball, of course is all about scoring runs and driving them in. Derek has driven in more runs (63 to 56) while Reyes has scored more (98 to 77), but Reyes has had more plate appearances. If we look at something I like to call run efficiency (runs/PA)+(RBI/PA) Jeter has a slight edge (.236 to .234).
Defensively, despite what Jeter’s commercial says, Reyes is the one with an edge, but it’s not as large as many would believe. Reyes has a better range factor, which many sabermetricians consider to be the “be all, end all” defensive statistic, but it is somewhat flawed in that it rewards a player simply for having balls hit his way while another gets penalized for not having balls hit his way. It’s also usually not a good idea to look at just one statistic to make an absolute determination. Jeter has a better fielding percentage while Reyes has turned more double plays.
Overall, I would say that it is accurate to say that Reyes is having a slightly better season than Jeter, but it would be ridiculous to imply that because of this one season he has become a better player. In 1946 Mickey Vernon had a better season than Joe DiMaggio. I don’t think that anyone would argue that Vernon was a better player.
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